Tropical Storm Rafael is on track to hit the southern tip of Louisiana by Saturday as it continues to gather strength en route to the Gulf of Mexico, and could become a hurricane by the time it hits Cuba.

Once Rafael enters the Gulf it is expected to remain a strong Category 1 hurricane and make a westerly turn. It should maintain strength until Thursday or Friday as it travels over the Loop Current.

Forecast models suggest steady to rapid strengthening, with a nearly 40% chance of a 35 mph increase in wind speed within the next 24 hours. However, as it nears the central Gulf later this week, increased wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters are likely to weaken it.