Final 2024 Election Predictions From Betting Markets Have Experts Sounding Alarm
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, has the Republican candidate with a 38 point lead against his Democratic opponent.
Experts Worry Election-Betting Markets Are Skewed Ahead of Vote
Economists have long loved prediction markets. Even niche platforms such as the Iowa Electronic Markets and betting pools inside companies like Ford Motor Co. have been praised for their fortune-telling prowess.
Opinion
Opinion - Gambling on ‘vibes’ — why the betting markets are getting the election all wrong
The betting markets currently have Donald Trump at a 62% chance of winning Tuesday's election, but this is based on the bettors' models that rely on social media engagement, which may not accurately reflect the sentiment of the electorate.
Trump dominating over Harris in betting markets ahead of Election Day
Former President Trump is strongly favored to beat Vice President Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to all but one prediction market.
El mercado de apuestas electorales no es un predictor perfecto, advierten expertos
Los economistas llevan mucho tiempo adorando los mercados de predicción. En el pasado han elogiado la capacidad de advinación de mediciones de nicho como los mercados electrónicos de Iowa y las bolsas de apuestas dentro de empresas como Ford Motor Co.
If U.S. Election Is Disputed, Prediction Markets Could Face 'Hornet's Nest'
At first blush, it looks redundant.The weekend before the U.S. presidential election, crypto-based prediction market Polymarket spun up a
Election-Betting Market Seen Plagued by Same Flaws in Past Votes
Economists have long loved prediction markets. Even niche platforms such as the Iowa Electronic Markets and betting pools inside companies like Ford Motor Co. have been praised for their fortune-telling prowess.
Why prediction markets swung heavily against Trump as the election neared
Axios Visuals Former President Trump's chances of recapturing the White House fell sharply over the weekend across prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Then they climbed back up. Why it matters: Volatility like this underlines why using betting markets to gauge the status of the presidential race is tricky.
Election Night Insights: Prediction Markets Don't Tell the 'Full Story,' Mark Connors Says
Onramp head of global macro strategy Mark Connors explains why prediction markets are not driven solely by sentiment around the U.S. election. Stand With Crypto this November. The future of crypto is on the line,
Kalshi election betting odds: Do bettors pick Trump or Harris? What we know on Election Day
Election betting is now legal in the U.S. Do Kalshi betting odds predict a Harris or a Trump win? What to know as Ohioans ...
Stocks rally as betting-market participants shorten odds of Trump victory
Betting markets saw gamblers shortening the odds of a victory for President Donald Trump on Tuesday, while stocks remained ...
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Top data scientist: Betting markets think Trump is winning, but Harris voters have reasons to remain hopeful
in Miller's words, separated by "just a state or two." Second, Miller stresses that the betting markets, including ...
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ELECTION MANIA: Donald Trump's Chances of White House Win Slump in Betting Markets As Nail-Biting Election Day Looms
Donald Trump's once large margin of victory in presidential race betting markets has taken a hit days out from the election.
Betting markets put odds of Trump victory close to 60%
Political gamblers like Donald Trump's chances of winning a second term in the White House. RealClearPolitics shows an average of 6 betting platforms giving the former president a 59.2% chance of ...
Presidential Betting Markets Are a Real-Time Experiment for Regulators—and It Could End Poorly
Billions have been wagered on the presidential election on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The bets are comically ...
Covers1h
US Presidential Election: Bettors Going Big on Trump vs. Harris Presidential Election Betting Odds
Covers brings you live updates throughout the day on the presidential election betting odds and how every notable state ...
What do betting markets say about control of Congress?
Election Day is less than a week away and voters are already heading to the polls and mailing in their ballots, and betting ...
Betting Platform Prices Point to a Trump Victory
Other betting markets have more consistently pointed to a Trump victory being the more probable outcome. Recent prices on ...